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John Velis, Americas macro strategist at BNY Mellon, said in a report that the Fed is expected to raise rates once more in December, but it is too early to be sure whether the Fed can deliver as many rate hikes in 2027 as the market has priced in. "The answer depends on how effective tightening policy can be under the current inflation shock." He said much depends on the situation in the Middle East, where visibility is low. "An easing of tensions, and the resulting drop in oil prices, could change the calculations of both the market and the Fed." But he added that tying the policy outlook to a situation that may worsen before it improves is not a sustainable approach.
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