China National Gold Strategy: The market rebound may gradually enter a platform period, and the elasticity of physical assets will also become evident.

The research report released by Guojin Securities indicates that the rapid decline of global AI assets in July was due to multiple factors, including heightened concerns over fundamental contradictions within the industry, geopolitical risks from the US-Iran situation, and rising expectations of liquidity tightening. Since August, with the US and Iran sending new signals for dialogue, and the weakening of US employment and inflation data post-World Cup leading to eased tightening expectations from the Federal Reserve, the performance of technology assets has gradually improved. After the driving force from the denominator side has weakened, AI assets and non-AI related physical assets are gradually entering a plateau phase. In terms of specific allocation recommendations, we suggest: First, the rebound in commodities has been established, and the combination of energy and metals is expected to transition from an overall downward trend since March to an overall upward phase. The US-Iran conflict only determines the internal distribution relationship; considering the intensification of short-term conflicts, the current ranking of resource products is: energy and non-ferrous metals. Second, dividend styles benefit from the switch of absolute return seekers, and high-dividend, low-volatility, and stable cash flow dividend assets remain the core direction for capital inflow for absolute returns. Third, the resonance between the story of Southern countries and Chinese manufacturing is emerging, with a focus on sectors such as construction machinery, power grid equipment, and refining.