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date
09/08/2026
Economists surveyed by Reuters expect that the overall CPI year-on-year for the U.S. in July will decline from 3.5% in June to 3.4%; the core CPI year-on-year is expected to drop from 2.6% last month to 2.5%. Economists at Citigroup believe that, as anticipated, if there are weak inflation readings for the second consecutive month, it would indicate that more than one month of data points to a cooling of inflationary pressures, which would essentially eliminate the possibility of an interest rate hike in September. However, economists also predict a slight increase in core services inflation in July, with prices expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month. This figure had been flat from May to June. Analysts at Bank of America stated that a rebound in core services indicators could keep the possibility of a September rate hike on the table. Analyst Kate Duguid noted that if the latter viewpoint prevails and inflation data comes in below expectations, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike may be delayed until December or later.
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