CITIC Construction Investment: The overseas warehouse model will replace direct shipping as the mainstream. End-to-end integrators with full-chain capabilities will ultimately prevail.

CITIC Securities released a research report stating that cross-border e-commerce logistics is undergoing a profound transformation from "cross-border" to "localization." The overseas warehouse model is expected to surpass direct shipping and become mainstream for the first time in 2026. This shift is primarily driven by the impact of new tariff policies in Europe and the United States on the cost-effectiveness of direct shipping, forcing platforms and sellers to adopt localized fulfillment. Additionally, the structural gap in last-mile delivery in the U.S. due to the strategic withdrawal of traditional giants has become a core competitive barrier in cross-border e-commerce logistics. In the future, logistics providers focusing on a single link will face pressure, while end-to-end integrators with the full chain capability of "China segment direct shipping + overseas warehouse + local last mile" will ultimately prevail.