Huatai Securities: Escalation of US-Iran situation, double blockade of Hormuz Strait pushes up oil prices.

Huatai Securities research report stated that in mid-July, the US-Iran situation escalated again, with Iran announcing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the US also announcing the resumption of its naval blockade against Iran, causing oil prices to rebound. On July 17, WTI and Brent futures prices closed at $82.5 per barrel and $88.1 per barrel, up 18.7% and 20.8% from the end of June. Huatai Securities believes that after a brief period of navigation in the strait for nearly a month, the severe shortage of crude oil supply has been slightly relieved in the short term; however, the uncertainty in the geopolitical situation remains, as the third quarter enters the peak season for global oil consumption and future global reserves are being supplemented, the price of crude oil is still supported in 1-2 years, maintaining a forecast of $82 per barrel for Brent crude oil futures for the years 2026-2027. In the medium to long term, Huatai Securities believes that the global oil consumption turning point is accelerating, the UAE's exit from OPEC is accelerating the breakdown of the monopoly supply pattern of crude oil, and the marginal cost support for oil-producing countries is $60 per barrel as the bottom central price.