Institution: The US dollar will return to its long-term depreciation trend.

Simona Mocuta, Chief Economist at T. Rowe Price, stated that this year the US dollar has been supported by safe-haven inflows and market pricing in expectations of Fed rate hikes, but these factors are already reflected in the exchange rate, so the dollar will return to its long-term depreciation trend. Her baseline forecast is that the Fed will keep rates unchanged throughout the year, but Mocuta says there is still a risk of a rate hike. Even if a rate hike does occur, it is already priced into the dollar, so it will not have much additional impact; however, if a rate hike does not happen, it will weaken the dollar. Due to lingering concerns about the US fiscal outlook, the dollar will return to its long-term depreciation trend.