Lates News

Dongfang Jincheng released a research report stating that it is expected that the 10-year US Treasury bond yield will show a fluctuating upward trend driven by the re-escalation of geopolitical risks. Firstly, considering the further escalation of tensions between the US and Iran since the weekend, and Iran's announcement on Monday of closing the Strait of Hormuz, international oil prices are expected to rise again, which will once again push up market inflation and interest rate hike expectations, becoming the core factors driving the upward trend of the 10-year US Treasury bond yield. Secondly, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will attend the semi-annual monetary policy hearing in Congress this week, and it is expected that his testimony will likely be hawkish, clearly conveying signals of controlling inflation and thus raising real interest rates. However, considering the overall downward trend of international oil prices in June, it is expected that the US CPI data in June will fall compared to May, which will to some extent restrain the magnitude of the upward trend in US bond yields. Overall, with the combination of geopolitical shocks and hawkish guidance from central banks, the central probability of the 10-year US Treasury bond yield continuing to rise.