Oriental Golden Sincerity: The central tendency of the 10-year US Treasury yield is likely to continue to rise.

On July 15th, Dongfang Jincheng released a research report predicting that the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds will show a trend of fluctuating upward due to the re-escalation of geopolitical risks. First of all, considering the further escalation of tensions between the US and Iran over the weekend, as well as Iran's announcement on Monday to close the Strait of Hormuz, international oil prices are expected to rise again, which will once again push up market inflation and interest rate hike expectations, becoming the core factors driving the upward movement of the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds. Secondly, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will attend the semi-annual monetary policy hearing in Congress this week, and it is expected that his testimony will likely be hawkish, clarifying the signal to control inflation and thus increasing real interest rates. However, considering the overall decline in international oil prices in June, it is expected that the US CPI data for June will decrease compared to May, which will to some extent suppress the extent of the upward movement of US Treasury bond yields. Overall, with the combination of geopolitical shocks and central bank hawkish guidance, it is highly likely that the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds will continue to rise.