The escalation of US-Iran tension triggers inflation concerns! Market bets on the probability of a Fed rate hike in July continue to rise.

According to the Securities Times financial APP, although futures traders and market forecasters currently generally expect the Federal Reserve to stand pat again at the July meeting, the likelihood of the central bank taking action at that time is rising. On Monday, market bets on a Fed rate hike continued to heat up. According to CME Group's "FedWatch" tool, the market currently expects a 46.5% probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates by 25 basis points on July 29, up from 34% last Sunday. On the prediction market platform Kalshi, traders currently predict a 36% probability of a Fed rate hike, higher than the level of less than 20% last Sunday and far higher than the probability of less than 10% at the beginning of the month.