Bernstein is bullish on gold for the second half of the year, with a target price raised to $4375 per ounce.

Bernstein raised its 2026 gold price expectations, with a target price of $4375 per ounce in the second half of the year and an annual target price of $4533. The institution believes that central banks continuing to buy gold and a high probability of the Federal Reserve not raising interest rates in the next 12 months will be the main factors supporting gold prices. Bernstein expects that the Federal Reserve may only raise interest rates 1 to 2 times at most, and pressure from gold ETF fund outflows will also be limited. Bernstein pointed out that a rise in real interest rates in the second quarter of 2026 caused the gold price to fall from $4650 per ounce to around $4000, but with stable interest rate expectations, gold still has room to rise. The institution also warned that if inflation remains higher than expected and prompts the Federal Reserve to take more aggressive rate hikes, it will be the main risk for gold price increases.