Goldman Sachs: Strait of Hormuz conflict escalation may delay oil supply recovery process.

Goldman Sachs Group said that if tensions escalate again and disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the pace of Middle East oil supply recovery may be slowed down. Data from Goldman Sachs shows that in June, daily oil production in the Persian Gulf is still about 10.5 million barrels lower than pre-war levels. Analysts, including Yulia Greigbis from the bank, released a research report stating, "Although oil-producing countries in the Middle East have gradually reopened and closed oil wells in the past month, the risk of interruptions in shipping in the Strait of Hormuz may slow down the progress of oil production." The bank said that there are two-way risks for both the volume of Persian Gulf oil shipments and oil prices. If the negotiations between the two parties progress smoothly for 60 days, shipping security is ensured, and the US resumes granting waivers for Iranian oil exports, oil transportation is expected to resume by the end of July. However, if the negotiations fail and there are further incidents of oil tanker attacks, the volume may decline again. Last month, as shipping in the Strait of Hormuz gradually resumed, Goldman Sachs and several other investment banks simultaneously lowered their oil price forecasts. Their analysts had also warned that the oil market may once again face a situation of oversupply.