Citigroup: Aluminum price expected to bottom out in the short term and may rebound to $3500 by the end of the year.

Citibank stated that they expect aluminum prices to bottom out within the next month, and then gradually rise to the range of $3300 to $3500 per metric ton between September and December. The bank believes that this forecast is based on multiple factors, including the Federal Reserve's dovish policy, declining real interest rates, improving demand prospects, and continued depletion of inventory based on consumption days. At the same time, the recent decline in aluminum prices mainly reflects weaker-than-expected demand, visible slowing of inventory turnover, easing geopolitical risks, speculation and physical positions being unwound, and increased market expectations for future supply increases. In the past month, aluminum prices have fallen by about 20% from around $4450 per ton, shaking the year-long uptrend. However, Citibank believes that it is not appropriate to short aluminum prices at the moment, as the market was already in a supply deficit before the recent downturn, and new supplies may not be able to meet demand growth in a timely manner. The bank also pointed out that concerns about a rapid return of supply from the Middle East may be exaggerated.