Institution: Cost transmission is not as good as fundamental drivers, prices surged and then fell back in the first half of the year.

In the first half of 2026, domestic refined oil prices showed a trend of first rising and then falling, with the average price level rising year on year. Influenced by the Middle East geopolitical situation, international oil prices rose, driving up the prices of refined oil products rapidly on the cost side. However, the domestic supply and demand situation came under pressure, dragging down the prices of gasoline and diesel at high levels. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the center of gravity of international crude oil is expected to shift downward, and with the trend of weak supply and demand difficult to change, domestic refined oil prices may show a trend of fluctuating downward.