Guosen Securities: Aluminum production capacity will continue to be in excess in the long term and the aluminum price outlook is not pessimistic.

Guosen Securities released a research report stating that if the main producing country, Guinea, restricts exports, the scarcity of bauxite resources will become more prominent, and the profits of various links in the aluminum industry chain may need to be redistributed. If this affects alumina supply, it may force foreign electrolytic aluminum projects to slow down. After the structural reform on the supply side of the Chinese electrolytic aluminum industry in 2017, the alumina industry has been in a long-term surplus situation; looking ahead, alumina production capacity will continue to be in surplus. Although the supply growth is relatively large in 2027, over a longer period, there is no significant supply pressure, and the bank is not pessimistic about the aluminum price.