CITIC Securities: This round of AI is more like an electric new cycle, rather than an internet bubble.

CITIC Securities research report believes that the current round of AI trading from June 2025 is more like the electronic new cycle in 2021 compared to the dot-com cycle in 2000. Similar to the situation in mid-2021, the current AI market is comparable to the electronic new cycle, with the dynamic PE of upstream not collapsing yet and performance expectations just beginning to increase. There are four signals indicating a peak: the prices of "least scarce" commodities reaching a peak, downstream widespread price increases and cost complaints, increased overseas Capex disclosure density, and the collapse of crowdiness/diffusion. In the upstream, the later the market for low-valuation, tight-supply varieties, the higher the cost-effectiveness. Currently, we also prefer downstream varieties, promising storage chains, engine chains, optical modules, PCBs, cloud vendors in the silicon-based sector, computing power metals with carbon + silicon, fluorine chemicals, phosphorus chemicals.