Morgan Stanley lowers oil price forecast due to faster-than-expected reopening of the Hormuz Strait.

Analysts Martijn Rats and others at Morgan Stanley wrote in a report that due to the faster-than-expected reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, combined with high US exports, the bank has lowered its Brent crude price forecast. Oil price forecast for the third quarter of 2026 is lowered by $15 to $75 per barrel; fourth quarter: down $5 to $75; first and second quarter of 2027: down $5 to $75; third and fourth quarter of 2027: down $10 to $70; "In order to achieve market balance in 2027, the oil transportation volume through the Hormuz Strait only needs to recover to 11-12 million barrels per day, about 65% of the pre-conflict level"; "Looking ahead to 2027, our model assumes that this number will be exceeded, and observable inventory will increase by 3 million barrels per day, which could put pressure on oil prices."