Guangda Futures: The situation in the Middle East reversed again over the weekend, and gold may continue to be weak.

Over the weekend, the conflict between the US and Iran escalated, with spot gold falling more than 1% in early trading on Monday. Looking back at last week, gold first fell and then rose, with London spot gold falling below the key support level of $4000 per ounce before rebounding, with a weekly drop of more than 1%, falling for four consecutive weeks. The drop in domestic gold prices was greater than that in overseas markets, with the main contract falling by over 5% for the week. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the core pricing logic of the precious metals market will continue to be dominated by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path, with the US-Iran situation still an important variable and geopolitical observation point. In the baseline scenario, if the US-Iran 60-day negotiations progress smoothly and the Strait of Hormuz remains permanently open, a downward shift in crude oil prices will ease inflationary pressures, expectations of a Fed rate cut are expected to be restored, and expectations of a decline in real interest rates will open up medium- to long-term upside potential for gold and silver prices, especially if the Fed can "hike" interest rates early, the probability of a halt in the decline of the gold market will be more certain. The uncertainty lies in whether Powell advocates Fed independence and continues to push for a strong dollar policy, driving the Fed to remain in a hawkish policy stance, which may trigger significant volatility in the global financial markets and continue to be unfavorable for gold price movement from the perspective of tightening US dollar liquidity. Finally, from a price perspective, London spot gold has experienced a 30% range within the year so far, historically excluding the previous year, years with high ranges are generally in the range of 30% to 35%, which also means that this round of bear market may be coming to an end. Looking back at the gold market in the first half of the year in June, gold went through many negative factors such as "bubble squeezing, geopolitical turmoil, rate hike expectations, hawkish Powell", the market has priced in the negatives for the second half of the year may improve, but also need to pay attention to trend opportunities, which require clear signals from the Federal Reserve's policy shift, which may require more signals of economic inflation and longer observation.