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The final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the United States in June recorded 49.5 (initial value was 48.9), rising by about 10% from May due to a slight drop in gasoline prices. Consumer confidence levels for various income, wealth, and political affiliations all improved. Expectations for business conditions in the next five years have significantly increased by 16%, indicating that consumer concerns about the long-term consequences of the Iran conflict seem to be easing. However, the confidence index still remains in a negative range, being 13% lower than in February 2026 (before the Iran conflict) and nearly 20% lower than the same period last year. Cost of living continues to be the top concern for consumers: for the third consecutive month, over half of consumers mention that high prices are dragging down their personal financial situation. Inflation expectations for the next year have slightly declined from 4.8% in May to 4.6% this month, still at a high level. The current reading is significantly higher than the 3.4% in February before the start of the Iran conflict and higher than all data for the entire year of 2024. Long-term inflation expectations have fallen from 3.9% in the previous month to 3.3% in June, still slightly higher than the range of 2.8% to 3.2% for 2024.
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