CITIC Securities: It is expected that the Federal Reserve will maintain its target interest rate unchanged for the full year.

CITIC Securities pointed out that the US CPI in May roughly met expectations, with high oil prices continuing to push up overall inflation rates, while core inflation remained mild. CITIC Securities believes that the risk of secondary inflation in the US is low, and the overall CPI may have reached the peak of this round on a year-on-year basis. It is expected to slowly decline until September, then rebound slightly, and rapidly fall again until March next year. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will maintain its target interest rate unchanged for the whole year, and there is room for downward revision of market expectations for rate hikes priced in derivative markets. The focus of next week's Federal Reserve interest rate meeting will mainly be on the new chairman, Jerome Powell, and his description of the current inflation situation and interest rate level. US bonds are currently more suitable for trading opportunities rather than investment opportunities. Short-term bonds are better than long-term bonds, the US dollar index has support, and the price of gold may need to wait for expectations of monetary easing to restart before breaking out of its current dilemma.