The US CPI rose by 4.2% year-on-year in May, and the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points within the year has increased.

Data released by the US Department of Labor on the 10th showed that driven by rising energy prices, the US consumer price index in May rose by 4.2% year-on-year, reaching a new high since May 2023. Excluding food and energy prices, the core CPI in the US rose by 2.9% year-on-year in May. Analysts believe that the much higher-than-expected non-farm data released last Friday has caused the market's expectations of rate cuts to diminish. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that the probability of the Fed raising rates by 25 basis points this year has risen to approximately 43%, and it does not rule out the possibility of the Fed raising rates by a cumulative 50 basis points this year.