Guangda Futures: Overseas hawkish expectations dominate, short-term gold under pressure.

The short-term core focus of precious metals is on the Fed's June interest rate meeting. Although the market has already reduced the possibility of a Fed rate cut this year to near zero, the probability of a rate hike has been steadily rising in market pricing. However, investors still hope to see the Fed's attitude towards inflation and rate cut expectations. For gold, expectations of higher real interest rates mean that holding opportunity costs remain high. Global gold ETFs have seen continuous net outflows since May, while speculative long positions in COMEX have been significantly reduced. The market is caught between "hawkish expectations dominating" and "geopolitical risk support," resulting in a range-bound tug-of-war. It is likely that gold prices will continue to fluctuate within the range of $4000-$4500 per ounce. Expectations for gold prices in the first half of the year continue to be lowered, with focus on whether the market will experience abnormal volatility of "buy the rumor, sell the fact" before and after the Fed's interest rate meeting, as well as progress in US-Iran negotiations.