Fitch Ratings expects oil to return to oversupply after the reopening of the strait of Hormuz.

Fitch Ratings believes that the current surge in oil prices reflects a "temporary logistical supply shock" rather than sustained production losses. Fitch stated in a report, "We assume that the strait will reopen around the end of July, and we expect Brent crude prices to drop significantly from their highs in March to July." Their base scenario assumes that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen by the end of July, with an average Brent crude price of $87 per barrel in 2026. Fitch predicts that after the strait reopens, oil prices will decline, the market will rapidly return to oversupply, and they estimate an oversupply of about 4 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, depending on OPEC's policies. ICE Brent crude rose by 3.7%, reaching $96.60 per barrel.