Citibank's prediction of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve appears increasingly isolated on Wall Street.
After strong performance in the US employment data, Citigroup economists remain unmoved, maintaining their prediction that the Fed will cut interest rates three times this year, a forecast that is increasingly isolated. Citigroup's chief US economist Andrew Hollenhorst wrote on Friday that although the May employment report from the Labor Department will likely lead Fed officials to focus on the risk of rising inflation at their June 16-17 meeting, rather than the risk of falling employment, he believes the labor market will soften in the next three months. This will prompt the market to "reprice the possibility of rate cuts, rather than rate hikes." The addition of 172,000 nonfarm jobs in May was higher than all estimates in a Bloomberg survey, driving the largest increase in job growth in over two years. Citigroup's forecast remains that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in each of the last three meetings of the year, in September, October, and December. The bank has been predicting three rate cuts this year, each 25 basis points, since December, but its economists have gradually pushed back the timing of the first rate cut from January to September.
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