Lates News

In a new report, Fitch Ratings stated that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused logistical supply shocks but has not changed market trends. It is expected that production in the region will quickly recover, non-OPEC countries will see strong supply growth, and OPEC policies may become more aggressive in the fourth quarter of 2026, leading to an oversupply situation and a downward push on oil prices once the strait reopens. Based on the assumption that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen around the end of July (meaning an actual closure period of five months), our baseline expectation is for the average price of Brent crude oil in 2026 to be $87 per barrel. There is still significant uncertainty about the exact timing of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and oil prices face binary risks. The current price increase reflects a temporary logistical supply shock rather than long-term loss of production capacity. We anticipate the strait reopening around the end of July and expect Brent crude oil prices to significantly decline from the high levels seen from March to July.