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Brent Schutte, Chief Investment Strategist of Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, stated that the labor market in the United States has recovered from the weak and narrow growth seen in 2025, and is now showing a stronger and broader pattern of growth. In 2025, non-cyclical healthcare and social assistance in the U.S. economy contributed to all employment growth. The diffusion index, which measures the breadth of economic expansion (with 50 being neutral), has risen above 50 in the past five months and reached 54.4 in May. The good news for consumers is a strong and stable job market, but concerns for future spending arise from real wages experiencing negative growth despite average hourly wages rising by 3.4% year-on-year and inflation reaching 3.8%. The Federal Reserve may lean towards a wait-and-see approach, but its focus is likely to shift towards inflationary aspects of monetary policy.
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