Guangfa Securities: Where might the next change in equity assets come from?
Guangfa Securities research report states that the next changes in equity assets may come from where? We understand that one is the "overseas geopolitical and monetary policy switch". Currently approaching a change window, if the US-Iran agreement is reached, and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, the cost side of the midstream and downstream industries will improve, and some assets that have been suppressed in the past may have a rebound opportunity. In addition, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in June is not expected to have too many surprises, but the signal it releases will be crucial. If the market interprets the new framework as being more "hawkish", it may trigger adjustments in some assets that are currently overvalued. Second is the implementation of the domestic "six stability" policy. The BCI enterprise investment forward-looking index hit a new high for the year in May, and the construction industry PMI rebounded from its low, indicating that the impact of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds and policy financial instruments is beginning to take effect, with initial transmission of concentrated support in the "six stability" areas. If fixed asset investment turns for the better in June, assets in the cyclical and consumption sectors may all be driven from a low level. Third, the initial peak of the domestic "inflation-growth" scissor gap is seen, if confirmed in June-July, the preliminary conditions for a broad-based economic recovery are in place, although not collapsing, the likelihood of convergence is high. By the end of May, the rotation speed of the A-share Shenwan second-tier industry has marginally increased. In summary, after a relatively one-sided May globally, June may see a series of "clues" that will help drive some degree of rebalancing.
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