CITIC Securities: This round of El Nio phenomenon may lead to higher temperatures this year, and it is expected that residents' electricity consumption may maintain a higher growth rate.

Guosen Securities research report stated that the El Nio phenomenon usually leads to above-average precipitation in the southern Yangtze River Basin or the Huai River Basin, accompanied by above-average temperatures nationwide. Reviewing the last El Nio phenomenon, in 2024 the national temperature reached a historical high, which drove a significant increase in residential electricity consumption; above-average precipitation in the Northeast and Jianghuai region led to the restoration of hydropower hours, but spot electricity prices mainly followed the downward trend of coal prices. According to the forecast from the National Climate Center, this round of El Nio phenomenon may lead to above-average temperatures and above-average precipitation in the southern Yangtze River Basin. Based on this, it is predicted that residential electricity consumption will maintain a relatively high growth rate, and with coal prices continuing to rise, combined with peak summer electricity consumption, spot electricity prices will increase.