The New Zealand Central Bank is expected to stand pat, but needs to monitor dissenting voices.
With any dissent on the official overnight cash rate now likely specific to individual committee members, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has entered a new era this week. ASB expects the central bank to keep the official overnight cash rate unchanged at 2.25% on Wednesday, but only after considering various viewpoints on the outlook. "If there is a divided vote or disagreement in consensus, we would not be surprised," said ASB senior economist Jane Turner. However, maintaining the rate unchanged may be only a temporary respite for borrowers. ASB believes that the official overnight cash rate needs to rise, and there are ample reasons to start hiking rates in May, July, or September. "We still believe July is the best time, leaving enough time for observation while not allowing inflation to spiral out of control for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand," the institution stated.
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