Economists raise US inflation expectations, delaying their predictions for the Fed's interest rate cut.

With the price impact caused by the Iran war spreading from energy costs to a wider range of areas, economists have raised their expectations for inflation in the United States and delayed their judgment on the timing of the next rate cut by the Federal Reserve. According to the latest survey of economists, it is currently expected that the price index for personal consumption expenditures in the United States in the second quarter will increase by 3.9% year-on-year, higher than the previous month's forecast of 3.6%. Economists have also raised their inflation forecasts for each quarter until early 2027. Economists expect that the core PCE index, excluding food and energy prices, will also increase more than previously expected, and believe that both total PCE and core PCE will remain above 3% by the end of the year. Half of the respondents are currently divided on whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates in December, while in the previous survey, they generally expected the next rate cut to be in October.