If the Rapidan refers to the closure of the Hormuz Strait until August, it may trigger an economic recession comparable to that of 2008.

Rapidan Energy Group says that if the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues until August, the risk of economic downturn will increase, with severity potentially approaching that of the great recession of 2008. The consulting firm's baseline scenario assumes that the waterway will reopen in July. In this scenario, daily oil demand will decrease by 2.6 million barrels, and Brent crude oil spot prices will peak near $130 per barrel in the summer. However, if the disruption continues beyond July, a larger contraction in demand will be needed to offset the supply shocks in August and September, potentially leading to an annual decline in global oil consumption in 2026. The company states that if the delay extends to August, the supply gap in the third quarter will expand to around 6 million barrels per day, at which point inventories will be close to levels that are operationally challenging to manage. Rapidan says that even if the Strait reopens in early August, market supply and demand will further tighten before any relief is evident, as oil production in the Arabian Gulf gradually returns and shipments begin reaching their destinations, resulting in continued depletion of crude oil inventories until September.