CITIC Securities: After the group trend ends, excessive returns often occur in sectors that are not popular and are not directly opposed to popular industries.
According to the research report of CITIC Securities, the current period of extreme market clustering since 2007 ranks second in terms of duration. After the clustering market ends, the excess returns often appear in industries with basic fundamentals rather than sectors that are in opposition to popular industries. If an industry is heavily attracting investment in AI hardware, it is likely that there are flaws within the industry itself. For the market, the next thing to be alert to is the return of fundamental pricing funds and the continuous rise in commodity prices after the volatility in commodity markets decreases. At that time, the market will begin to price in the real economic impact caused by the discontinuation of pricing, and the continuous price increases and unexpected profits caused by supply and demand gaps will become the core clues. Domestic supply-side policies should not be ignored, with "energy conservation and carbon reduction" and the "carbon peaking assessment method" being two key recent documents. The timing of their release also reflects the urgency to accelerate energy conservation and carbon reduction in a complex global geopolitical environment. In terms of portfolio allocation, it is recommended to continue to adhere to China's advantages in manufacturing and actively seek out varieties with supply and demand gaps.
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