CITIC Securities: Lithium carbonate price increase expectations, coupled with lower costs for sodium batteries, entering a period of increased production and stable pricing for sodium batteries in 2027.

CITIC Jiantou research report states that the expected increase in lithium carbonate prices, combined with the reduction in costs for sodium batteries, will lead to a period of mass production for sodium batteries starting in 2027. At the present node, the cost of lithium iron phosphate battery cells is about 0.38 yuan/Wh. If the price of lithium carbonate increases to 200,000 yuan/ton and the price of copper rises to 110,000 yuan/ton by the second half of 2026, the complete cost of lithium iron phosphate battery cells will reach 0.42 yuan/Wh. Currently, the cost of battery cells for top-tier sodium battery manufacturers is about 0.47 yuan/Wh. We predict that by the end of 2026, the cost of battery cells for top-tier manufacturers using layered oxygen process sodium ion batteries is expected to be on par with lithium iron batteries, with cost savings mainly coming from: 1) The decrease in sodium battery cell costs by 6-7 cents/Wh due to scale production on the material end. 2) Improvement in yield will bring 1-2 cents/Wh cost savings. 3) Increase in operating rate will bring a decrease in depreciation/human/energy consumption costs by 3 cents/1 cent/0.5 cents per Wh, totaling a reduction in manufacturing costs of 4 cents/Wh. Even considering that the packaging process may be more expensive by 1-2 cents/Wh, we believe that by 2026, the cost of battery cells for top-tier sodium battery manufacturers will be on par with lithium batteries, and 2027 will start the era of mass production at equal prices.