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date
18/04/2026
The Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, Georgieva, said that every additional day of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine means additional losses for the global economy.
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Federal Reserve Governor Waller said that he is cautious about the need for an interest rate cut in the short term due to the energy shock triggered by the Iran war and warned that the conflict may have a lasting impact on inflation. Waller outlined two main scenarios in his speech. In the first scenario, if the Strait of Hormuz reopens and trade flows return to normal, officials will be able to overlook the surge in energy prices and shift their focus to the weak job market later this year. He said, "In this case, I think there is a prospect that potential inflation will continue to fall back to the 2% target, which makes me cautious about cutting interest rates now and more inclined to support the labor market through rate cuts later this year, when the outlook is more stable." However, he warned that oil prices and the overall market are underestimating the risk of the conflict prolonging. "The risk in terms of inflation is that the longer the conflict lasts and the longer energy prices remain high, the more likely it is that these high input prices will penetrate into other prices, as companies will take into account the high energy costs when pricing." He said that if this situation occurs against the backdrop of a weak job market, it will limit the policy response space. In this case, he will weigh the risks between higher inflation and a weaker labor market. "If the inflation risk outweighs the labor market risk, it may mean keeping policy rates in the current target range."
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