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According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin is currently trading at $74,700, down 0.4% in the past 24 hours. News of ceasefire negotiations between the US and Iran boosted risk sentiment, with the S&P 500 index hitting a new all-time high on Thursday. President Trump mentioned the prospects of a permanent ceasefire between the US and Iran, stating that it looks "very optimistic," and claiming that Iran has agreed to abandon its nuclear ambitions, hand over nuclear materials, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, although Iran has not confirmed these concessions. Meanwhile, the market is closely watching the structural signals behind the movement of Bitcoin prices. ZeroStack CEO Daniel Reis-Faria stated, "The negative funding rate suggests that there is heavy short selling in the market. If Bitcoin continues to rise in this context, a large number of short positions may be forced to close, accelerating the price increase." He predicts that if the basis for short positions is squeezed, Bitcoin could reach $125,000 in the next 30 to 60 days. On-chain analyst CryptoVizArt provides another perspective, stating that the "True Market Mean" (TMM) of Bitcoin shows that the average holding cost of active holders is currently higher than the current price, indicating that holders are in an overall unrealized loss position. Breaking below this mean since 2016 has often coincided with Bitcoin's most severe downturn periods, including the bear markets from 2018 to 2019 (with a maximum drop of 57% lasting 282 days) and the downturn after the Luna and FTX collapses from 2022 to 2023 (with a maximum drop of 56% lasting 339 days). Analysts point out that these two assessments are not mutually exclusive the pressure from the negative funding rate triggering a short squeeze and the structural pressure from the overall unrealized losses of active holders could coexist, with the former potentially leading to a significant increase but eventually being sold out and absorbed by the latter. The future direction may depend on whether the US-Iran ceasefire can be extended beyond next week.