Huatai Securities: The intensifying conflict between the United States and Iran has exacerbated the global shortage of urea supply, with the overseas natural gas shortage assisting in pushing up urea prices.

Huatai Securities pointed out that the conflict between the US and Iran has led to a disruption in the exports of urea and natural gas in the Middle East. By 2025, the proportion of natural gas-based urea production capacity in global urea production capacity is about 65%, and the shortage of natural gas has caused a reduction in urea production capacity in South Asia and Southeast Asia. Due to issues such as shortages in raw material supply and damage to infrastructure caused by geopolitical conflicts, there are many obstacles to urea production resumption. Global urea prices have risen due to cost pressures and supply shortages. According to Bloomberg, on April 10th, urea prices rose by 73% from early March to $835 per ton. Huatai Securities believes that with the approaching planting season in South Asia and Southeast Asia, supply shortages may continue to drive up urea prices, benefiting overseas urea industry leaders and others.