Guo Jin securities: The impact of the Hormuz Strait is not limited to oil and gas prices, but continues to spread along the raw material system to the industrial production end.

Guojin Securities research report pointed out that the Strait of Hormuz is not just a single energy transportation channel, but a key supply node embedded in the global industrial system. Once there is disturbance, the impact is not limited to oil and gas prices, but will continue to spread along the raw material system to the industrial production end. The crisis in the Red Sea changes the transportation routes, while the impact of the Strait of Hormuz touches on the supply itself. The problem is not in short-term price fluctuations, but in the fact that once supply constraints are repeatedly verified, the industry chain will shift from efficiency priority to security priority, and the original division of labor will follow suit. Opportunities do not come from demand expansion, but from the misalignment between supply gaps and substitution capabilities. China has the ability to substitute in some parts of the chain, making it a relatively benefiting party. Looking down from the supply side, structural space mainly unfolds along three pathways: the premium on the stability of the energy system, the pricing reconstruction of food security, and the reassessment of the manufacturing industry's substitution path.