CITIC Securities: The probability of the United States and Iran reaching consensus on core demands is not low.

Zhongxin Securities stated that from the core demands of the United States, if Iran can abandon uranium enrichment, it will become the most core war achievement for the United States, and also the biggest "achievement" that Trump can use to appease the domestic audience. This round of conflict has had a significant negative impact on the midterm elections and needs to be resolved early. Since the Iranian Islamic Revolution, the United States has lost control of Iran's nuclear capabilities, and for the past few decades, US presidents have failed to solve this problem, severely affecting US Middle East strategy. Compared to the significant political impact of Iran's "nuclear abandonment achievements", the indirect link between oil prices and inflation may have a smaller impact on elections, so the Trump administration may compromise on issues such as control of the Strait of Hormuz. From Iran's core demands, this war has already proved that the blockade of the strait and threats to Middle Eastern infrastructure are extremely important leverage, even more destructive and flexible than nuclear weapons threats. Compared to the high and uncontrollable cost of nuclear weapons, blocking the strait and attacking infrastructure only require low-cost drones to have a huge impact on the US and global economy, thus forming a balancing tool for Iran against the US. Both the US and Iran have repeatedly stopped at the brink of massive infrastructure destruction, which also means that the probability of extreme escalation of war is not high, and the possibilities of extreme oil prices, severe recession, or stagflation are decreasing.