Analyst: CPI data may be "ignored" as the US-Iran negotiations become the only variable.

Forex analyst Giuseppe Dellamotta says that given the market focus on the US-Iran negotiations and the general belief that the rise in inflation data in March is due to war, the market is likely to ignore today's data as everything depends on the outcome of the US-Iran talks. There is a wide divergence in forecasts for overall CPI, but forecasts for core CPI are more concentrated. The Federal Reserve is currently in a firm neutral position, but has opened the door to further tightening policies in case inflation expectations start to rise or if the war lasts longer than expected. The market expects there to be a 7 basis point easing space by the end of the year, which means that there is no expectation for either rate hikes or cuts in 2026.