Barclays: The oil market reflects the expectation that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will quickly return to normal.

Barclay's Amarpreet Singh stated in a report that although the ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran appears fragile and the passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz remains inactive so far, the oil market seems to be reflecting expectations for a relatively swift return to normalcy in terms of traffic. He said that potential delays or a re-escalation of tensions bring upside risk to Barclay's forecast of Brent crude oil prices averaging $85 per barrel in 2026; and if this situation persists for a few more weeks, adjustments in demand may not be sufficient to keep prices constrained at current levels. "At least for now, the situation does not seem to be further escalating, and the parties involved are engaged in serious negotiations, which is a positive sign and brings some relief." Due to the uncertainty of the ceasefire agreement, crude oil futures are recovering some of yesterday's losses, with West Texas Intermediate rising by 7% and Brent crude by 3.6%.