Lates News

Goldman Sachs analysts, including Daan Struyven, stated that if the Strait of Hormuz were to close for another month, the average price of Brent crude oil in 2026 would exceed $100 per barrel. The analysts pointed out the ongoing instability in the situation and mentioned that U.S. Vice President Pence called the ceasefire fragile. They stated that they continue to believe that there is upward risk to our price forecast. Currently, Goldman's base-case scenario predicts that the flow through the strait will start to recover this weekend, followed by a gradual restoration of Persian Gulf exports to pre-war levels over the course of a month. In this scenario, Brent oil is expected to average $82 per barrel in the third quarter and $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter. The analysts stated that in the bank's so-called "adverse scenario," including a one-month delay in the reopening of the strait, the average price of Brent oil in the second half of the year could exceed $100. Another scenario, based on a longer closure and loss of production in certain regions, predicts even higher prices of $120 in the third quarter and $115 in the fourth quarter.