Goldman Sachs: Oil price risks are biased towards the upside due to possible extended supply disruptions and continued production losses.

Goldman Sachs analysts Dan Struyven and others stated in a report released on April 8 that oil price risks are tilted to the upside due to possible prolonged supply disruptions and sustained production losses. If the ceasefire cannot be maintained, or the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is delayed by a month, even if Persian Gulf oil production returns to pre-war levels, the average price of Brent crude oil in the fourth quarter is expected to reach $100 per barrel. If the strait opening is delayed and daily production in the Middle East continues to decrease by 2 million barrels, the price of Brent crude oil may rise to $115 per barrel. The bank maintains its unchanged expectations for oil prices: Brent crude oil is expected to be $82 per barrel in the third quarter and $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter. WTI crude oil is expected to be $77 per barrel in the third quarter and $75 per barrel in the fourth quarter.