Goldman Sachs lowered its copper price forecast for 2026 and expects the market surplus to expand.

Goldman Sachs said on Monday that it expects a larger scale surplus in the global copper market by 2026 and has lowered its copper price estimate, citing a softening demand growth due to a global economic slowdown driven by energy factors. The bank stated that the refined copper surplus in 2026 is now expected to be 490,000 tons, higher than the previous estimate of 380,000 tons, and also reduced the average price forecast for copper in 2026 from $12,850 per ton to $12,650. Goldman Sachs has lowered its global refined copper demand growth expectation from 2.0% to 1.6% for 2026, with the bank's economists previously estimating that rising energy prices could reduce global GDP growth by 0.4 percentage points. The bank stated that copper's demand resilience is still stronger than other metals, reflecting its increasingly important strategic and structural role. Assuming production remains unchanged, weak demand prospects will lead to a significant increase in inventory, with markets outside the US expected to approach supply-demand balance, prompting a nearly 2% downward revision in copper price changes year-on-year. In the short term, Goldman Sachs expects copper prices to remain volatile as the market assesses the impact of the tense situation in the Middle East on economic growth.