First Futures: The basic outlook for crude oil remains strong in April.

The global key spot crude oil price - Brent crude oil futures surpassed $140 per barrel, reaching the highest level since 2008, rising significantly from just over $128 the previous day, and already higher than the peak during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict. Previously, the market widely expected Trump to announce a ceasefire, with a large number of short-selling funds positioning themselves to sell crude oil ahead of time. However, Trump did not announce an end to the conflict in his speech, but instead vowed to launch a fierce attack on Iran in the next two to three weeks. This unexpected difference in expectations triggered a short-covering rush, driving oil prices to soar. The supply impact caused by the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz has now exceeded 1 million barrels per day. Even if navigation resumes, it will still take over a month for supply to fully recover, meaning the crude oil fundamentals will remain strong in April.