"Apocalyptic Doctor" Rubini: Probability of US escalating war with Iran over 50%

Rourielle Roubini, CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, predicts that US President Trump is more likely to escalate the war with Iran in order to achieve victory, rather than back down and risk more severe consequences for the economy and international order. The former White House economist stated on Friday during an economist and business leader conference at Lake Como in Italy, "My baseline scenario is that the probability of escalation is over 50%. The probability of escalation and failure is lower than the probability of escalation and victory, but comes with huge risks." Roubini said at the Ambrosetti Forum in Cernobbio, "It is more likely that if the US and Israel escalate action, the Iranian regime will collapse, leading to better outcomes in the medium term, even though oil prices will rise in the short term. Therefore, both President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are motivated to escalate and strive for victory."