Daiwa Securities: Postponing interest rate hikes may force the Bank of Japan to lag behind the situation.

date
28/03/2026
Shun Otani, strategist at Yamato Securities, said that a significant depreciation of the yen could bring upward pressure on Japan's profit and loss balance inflation rate. Otani believes that although the Bank of Japan ideally should raise interest rates in April, the overnight index swap market currently only expects a 60% chance of a rate hike. He said, "If the Bank of Japan stands pat and the market believes that political factors are the reason for its inaction, this may raise concerns about the central bank falling behind the curve. This in turn could lead to an increase in term premiums and breakeven inflation rates."