Institution: Silver long and short turning points are approaching, Middle East events guiding future market sentiment.

Currently, the international silver has already touched the 200-day moving average line, which is considered as the dividing line between bull and bear trends. However, the breakthrough amplitude has not reached more than 3%, and the domestic silver T+D has not yet touched this line. Observing the support situation of this line, if there is a strong breakthrough, it may trigger a complete market sentiment shift. But due to the fast-changing market sentiment at the moment, the trend line can only be used as a partial reference. At the same time, considering that the main silver futures contract currently shows an increase in open interest while prices are falling, it can be judged that the driving force is mainly new opening of short positions, mainly pricing in advance in anticipation of further deterioration of the situation. The core determining event is whether the United States will attack a power station in the Middle East. If this expectation materializes, it may lead to a completion of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift direction this year, increasing the possibility of an interest rate cut. Silver may face a return to the position from the last to the second-to-last interest rate cut last year. If the expectation does not materialize, or even signals of easing are released, causing a fall in oil prices from the high, there is a probability in the short term that due to oversold technical aspects, silver may rebound back above 16,000 yuan/kg, with subsequent support levels to watch for at 15,000 yuan/kg and 16,000 yuan/kg. Looking ahead, pay attention to the Federal Reserve's portrayal of the balance of risks between employment and inflation in March. If employment risks are emphasized, silver may continue to rise, otherwise it may remain volatile or fall; whether Trump's global tariffs can continue to be implemented, if it is determined that Trump needs to return previously imposed tariffs, and the new tariffs cannot be implemented, it will worsen the fiscal problems in the United States, increase the possibility of a rate hike, drive up prices, and vice versa.