UBS releases report: The current oil price increase may have a larger impact on the US economy.

On the 19th, the international investment bank UBS released a report pointing out that the current US economy is facing multiple overlapping unfavorable factors, making the impact of the current oil price increase on the US more destructive than before. The report states that although international oil prices remained high from 2011 to 2014, the booming shale oil industry in the US at that time provided a strong buffer for the US economy in the face of high oil prices - the loss of consumer purchasing power caused by high oil prices was offset to a certain extent by the employment, capital expenditure, and industrial output growth driven by the shale oil investment boom. After 2014, US investment in shale oil significantly contracted, and now this buffer has essentially disappeared, making it more difficult to offset the impact of the current oil price increase on the US economy. The report also emphasizes that the macroeconomic environment of the current US economy has several key differences from the previous high oil price cycle. Firstly, the US labor market is weaker now than it was from 2011 to 2014; secondly, the household sector in the US now has a more limited buffer space to withstand external shocks; and thirdly, the inflation impact is more severe, with rapid oil price increases leading to stronger transmission effects on overall prices. These factors collectively mean that the drag effect of the current oil price increase on US economic growth may far exceed market expectations.