The Royal Bank of Canada says that the futures market is underestimating the risk of the oil crisis escalating due to war.

The Royal Bank of Canada's capital markets stated that the energy crisis triggered by the war between the US and Israel on Iran is deepening because "there are currently no signs that the conflict will be contained within a limited range." Analysts, including Helima Croft, pointed out in their report that the so-called "paper crude oil" market has consistently underestimated the extent of supply disruptions, while the physical crude oil market has reacted more strongly. Tehran still "effectively controls the Strait of Hormuz," and the US strikes on Iran's oil export hub in Kharg Island have not changed Iran's strategic calculations. More and more military experts insist that ground forces may be needed to ensure the security of this key waterway. Iran can disrupt most of the energy exports in the Persian Gulf without maintaining a high-intensity rhythm of drone and missile attacks. Beyond the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has expanded its range of attacks to include ports in the region, using drones and remote-controlled small boats loaded with explosives.