HSBC said European natural gas prices may remain high until 2027 as war triggers supply shortages.

HSBC Holdings report shows that due to the Iran war and the closure of the Hormuz Strait causing supply shortages, European natural gas prices will be 40% higher in 2026 than previously predicted, and will remain high until 2027. HSBC's latest forecast predicts that the European natural gas benchmark, Dutch natural gas futures prices, will average $14 per million British thermal units in 2026 and $10 per million British thermal units in 2027. HSBC's price forecast for 2028 and beyond remains at $8.50 per million British thermal units. The report states that around 20% of global liquefied natural gas is transported through the Hormuz Strait. This crucial waterway has effectively been closed since last month's attacks. The report suggests that disrupted LNG supply will force European countries to pay higher premiums. It also notes that about 26% of LNG in Asian countries comes from Qatar and the UAE, so they will have to seek alternative sources. Europe is particularly sensitive to the impact on LNG supply, as its inventory levels are about 15 percentage points below the five-year average, with the previous cold winter raising heating and power gas demand. In contrast, the United States natural gas futures prices are relatively stable, as inventory levels are sufficient and US LNG export terminals are close to maximum capacity operation, shielding the world's largest natural gas exporter from global supply shocks.