If the strait remains blocked, analysis suggests that oil prices may surge toward the $150 mark. A large number of retail investors are flocking to the crude oil trading market.

After the attack on the main export hub of Iran in the United States, international oil prices rose during the Asian trading session on the 16th. The price of American oil futures briefly rose above $100 per barrel before narrowing and falling. How do market participants interpret the volatile trend in the oil market? Analyst Smith of Kepler believes that despite sporadic oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the situation has not been truly resolved overall. JPMorgan analysts believe that the US attack on Hark Island, as well as Trump's threat to strike Iran's oil infrastructure, signals a significant escalation of the conflict. If the threats materialize, this could provoke strong retaliation from Iran. Currently, the impact on crude oil supply has not fully manifested because of transportation delays. Many crude oil shipments were already loaded before the crisis erupted and are still in transit. However, due to a lack of tanker loading, some Gulf oil-producing countries have been forced to reduce production. In the next few weeks, once these energy supplies do not arrive on the market as scheduled, the market will truly feel the severity of this supply shock. In the coming weeks, analysts at Kepler believe that the Strait of Hormuz is likely to remain closed or severely restricted. Oil prices may quickly surge to $150 per barrel, entering a range that has never been reached before and setting a new historical high. Against the backdrop of sharp fluctuations in the energy market, data shows that a large number of retail investors are entering the oil trading market. According to data from provider VandaTrack, in the past five trading days, funds from small investors flowing into the US Oil ETF: USO reached a record $1.15 billion.